1. Event Update | Oil & Gas
August 16, 2010
Cairn India NEUTRAL
Vedanta buys majority stake in Cairn India CMP Rs333
Target Price -
Investment Period -
Deal details: Cairn Energy Plc has entered into an agreement with Vedanta
Resources Plc for sale of 40-51% stake in Cairn India. The success of the 20% Stock Info
mandatory open offer to minorities will determine the extent of stake sale by Sector Oil & Gas
Cairn Energy Plc. The all-cash deal is being executed at Rs405/share, wherein Market Cap (Rs cr) 63,155
Rs355/share will be towards the sale and purchase agreement and the balance Beta 1.0
Rs50/share constituting the non-compete fee. Thus, the open offer to the 52 Week High / Low 358/230
minorities will be at the lower price of Rs355/share, which is at 6.7% premium to Avg. Daily Volume 467896
the close price. Thus, the minority shareholders are at a disadvantage. The offer is Face Value (Rs) 10
subject to the government approval. The open offer will be made through Sesa BSE Sensex 18,051
Goa. Post the transaction, Sesa Goa will hold 20% in Cairn India, with Vedanta Nifty 5,418
holding 31- 40%.
Reuters Code CAIL.BO
Acceptance ratio contingent on Petronas stance: If Petronas tenders its share, the Bloomberg Code CAIR@IN
acceptance ratio in case of 100% tendering, will be 53%. However, if Petronas
does not tender its share, the acceptance ratio would be higher at 88%. Under
Shareholding Pattern (%)
both scenarios, at our target price for the stock, we believe that there are limited
Promoters 62.4
upsides from current levels in case one decides to tender the shares. Thus, one
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 7.3
should be indifferent between tendering the shares in the open offer or retaining
FII / NRIs / OCBs 26.0
them.
Indian Public / Others 4.3
Outlook and Valuation: We believe the transfer of the ownership of Cairn India
from Cairn Energy Plc to Vedanta Resources Plc is unlikely to impact the
company’s financials. However, the key risk is Vedanta’s lack of experience in Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
managing the E&P asset portfolio being a new player in the segment. Further, we Sensex 6.2 17.1 25.7
believe that returns to investors will be quite similar in case of tendering the share Cairn 14.3 33.6 136.3
in the open offer or otherwise. Our NAV-based Fair Value of Rs315 assumes
long-term crude oil price of US $75/bbl, whereas the current stock price is
discounting long-term average crude price of US $79.1/bbl. Thus, upsides from
current levels are limited. We recommend Neutral on the stock.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 1,433 1,623 7,863 14,761
% chg 41.5 13.3 384.5 87.7
Net Profits 803 1,051 4,392 8,752
OPM (%) 60.5 60.4 81.2 83.9
EPS (Rs) 4.2 5.5 23.2 46.1
P/E (x) 78.6 60.1 14.4 7.2
Deepak Pareek
+91 22-4040 3800 Ext:340
P/BV (x) 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6
Deepak Pareek@angeltrade.com
RoE (%) 2.7 3.2 12.4 23.0
RoCE (%) 1.3 1.7 13.9 25.9 Amit Vora
EV/Sales (x) 45.8 37.8 7.6 4.0 +91 22 -4040 3800 Ext: 322
EV/EBITDA (x) 75.7 62.5 9.4 4.7 Amit.vora@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
2. Event Update | Oil & Gas
Details of the deal
Cairn Energy Plc has entered into an agreement with Vedanta Resources Plc for
sale of 40-51% stake in its Indian subsidiary, Cairn India. The success of the 20%
mandatory (as per the Indian takeover regulations) open offer to minorities will
determine the extent of stake sale by Cairn Energy Plc. The all-cash deal is being
executed at Rs405/share (US $8.66 as of August 13, 2010 closing exchange rate)
wherein Rs355/share (US $7.59) will be towards the sale and purchase agreement
and the balance Rs50/share (US $1.07) constituting the non-compete fee. Thus,
the 20% mandatory open offer to the other shareholders (except Cairn Energy Plc)
will be at the lower price of Rs355/share, which is at 6.7% premium to the close
price. Thus, the minority shareholders are at a disadvantage in terms of receiving
lesser compensation for selling their stake. The offer is subject to the government
approval. The open offer will be made through Sesa Goa. At the end of the
transaction, Sesa Goa will hold 20% of Cairn India, with Vedanta itself holding
between 31- 40%. Cairn Energy Plc has guided for transaction completion in
1QCY2011. Stake sale will fetch Cairn Energy Plc a premium of 21.7% over the
current market price. According to our understanding, deal price reflects the long
term crude oil prices of US $96.7/bbl.
The transaction will result in Cairn Energy Plc receiving cash consideration of
between US $6,651mn (for 40% stake sale) and US $8,480mn (for 51% stake
sale). The final amount of the consideration payable to Cairn by Vedanta will be
determined once the open offer has closed and the number of Cairn India shares
subject to valid acceptance under the open offer is known. Thus, post the deal,
Cairn Energy Plc on a fully diluted equity base will hold a minority 21.6-10.6%
stake in Cairn India.
The companies have also entered into a non-compete undertaking, which will
cover the territories of Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and India, wherein for a period
of three years, Cairn Energy Plc will not engage in the business of oil or gas
extraction, its transport or processing and any other business, which competes with
the business of Cairn India and its subsidiaries as at the completion date in any of
those territories. Cairn has also agreed to a non-solicitation agreement for a
period of three years with respect to any person who is or has been an officer or
senior employee of the Cairn India Group within a year prior to completion.
Cairn and Vedanta have also entered into two reciprocal put and call options in
respect of the difference in the number of Cairn India shares actually sold to
Vedanta and 51% of Cairn India’s fully diluted share capital on completion (for
instance, if only 40% of Cairn India’s shares are sold, then for the balance 11%
(51% less 40%) the put and call option is applicable). One put and call option is
exercisable after July 1, 2012 and the other after July 1, 2013, in both cases at a
Rs405/share (US $8.66). Each option may be exercised to a maximum of 5% of
the issued share capital of Cairn India, as at the date of exercise of the option. The
put and call options will ensure that a majority interest in Cairn India can be sold
to Vedanta.
Cairn Energy Plc has agreed to give Vedanta a matching pre-emption right over
any subsequent disposal by it of any shares where such transaction would result in
the intended recipient obtaining more than 20% of the issued share capital of
Cairn India.
August 16, 2010 2
3. Event Update | Oil & Gas
Acceptance ratio contingent on Petronas stance: Acceptance ratio of the open offer
is contingent on the reaction of Petronas to the open offer. If Petronas also tenders
its share, the acceptance ratio in case of 100% tendering, will be 53%. However, if
Petronas does not tender its share, the acceptance ratio would be higher at 88%.
Exhibit 1: Current Shareholding pattern and Acceptance ratio
Cairn Energy Plc (%) 62.4
Vedanta Resources (%) -
Petronas (%) 14.9
Others (%) 22.7
Total (%) 100.0
Acceptance ratio if Petronas does not tender (%) 88%
Acceptance ratio if Petronas tenders (%) 53%
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: based on current no of shares
As the extent of the share sale from Cairn Energy Plc is contingent on the success
of the open offer by Sesa Goa (Vedanta Group Company), the shareholding
pattern post the deal will also vary. We highlight below the shareholding pattern of
the company at various levels of acceptance of the open offer.
Exhibit 2: Shareholding pattern post the deal under various scenarios
Share garnered in offer by Sesa Goa (%) - 5.0 10.0 11.0 15.0 20.0
Cairn Energy Plc will give (%) 51.0 46.0 41.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
Cairn Energy Plc (%) 10.6 15.6 20.6 21.6 21.6 21.6
Vedanta Resources plc (%, incl. Sesa Goa) 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 55.0 60.0
Petronas (%) 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9
Others (%) 23.5 18.5 13.5 12.5 8.5 3.5
Total (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: based on diluted no of shares
How does the open offer math stack up?
The open offer dynamics would continue to hinge on the acceptance ratio, which
in turn is dependent on the action of Petronas (14.94% stakeholder in Cairn India).
We outline below our working of the acceptance ratio (% of shares likely to
accepted in the open offer) under the various scenario and the breakeven point at
current levels. We also gauge the sensitivity analysis of the likely returns depending
on where the stock price settles post the open offer.
Scenario – I: If Petronas does not tender its share in the open offer: In such a
scenario, we believe there is likely to be a healthy acceptance ratio of 88.3%
assuming all the shareholders agree to tender their shares.
August 16, 2010 3
4. Event Update | Oil & Gas
Exhibit 3: Sensitivity Analysis of return based on likely price post open offer
Open offer price 355 355 355 355 355 355 355
Post open offer price 306 311 316 321 326 331 336
Acceptance ratio (%) 88 88 88 88 88 88 88
Avg. selling price 349 350 350 351 352 352 353
Stock return (%, unadjusted for transaction cost) 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
Scenario – II: If Petronas does tender its share in open offer: In such a scenario, we
believe there is likely to be a acceptance ratio of 53.3% assuming all the
shareholders agree to tender their shares.
Exhibit 4: Sensitivity Analysis of return based on likely price post open offer
Open offer price 355 355 355 355 355 355 355
Post open offer price 306 311 316 321 326 331 336
Acceptance ratio (%) 53 53 53 53 53 53 53
Avg. selling price 332 334 337 339 341 344 346
Stock return(%, unadjusted for transaction cost) 0.0 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
Under both scenarios, at our target price for the stock, we believe that there are
limited upsides from current levels in case one decides to tender the shares. Thus,
one should be indifferent between tendering the shares in the open offer or
retaining them. However, the given the speculation associated with the revision of
the open offer price to Rs405/share in line with the price paid to Cairn Energy Plc,
there could be decent upsides from current levels. However, chances of the same
happening appear slim. As per the SEBI regulation, a promoter is entitled up to
25% of the deal price as the non-compete fees. However, we believe higher price
in form of non-compete fees only to Cairn Energy Plc is unjustified.
Outlook and Valuation
We believe the transfer of the ownership of Cairn India from Cairn Energy Plc to
Vedanta Resources plc is unlikely to have any repercussion on the company’s
financials. However, the key risk associated with the deal is Vedanta’s lack of
expertise and experience in managing the asset portfolio as it is a new player in
the segment. Also, Cairn Energy Plc’s superior exploratory capacities will also be a
matter of deliberation. However, at the current juncture it is premature to assume
the deal to have an adverse impact as Cairn India’s current management would
continue to run the business in a professional manner.
With regards to the open offer, we believe that returns to the current investors will
be quite similar in case of tendering the share in the open offer or otherwise. We
recommend a Neutral on the stock.
On the fundamental aspect, the development work at the Rajasthan block is
progressing well, with production from Train-I, II and III and pipeline for crude
evacuation already commissioned, while Train-IV and the marine facility is likely to
be commissioned in CY2011. The development work undertaken by the company
August 16, 2010 4
5. Event Update | Oil & Gas
highlights its superior execution skills. Cairn India has already tied up volumes of
1,43,000bpd with four buyers, viz. RIL, IOC, Essar and MRPL, which puts to rest
concerns about users of the waxy crude produced from the Rajasthan field.
In the absence of any major discoveries and the company’s focus on development
of the Rajasthan block, Cairn India’s stock price is likely to be driven by the
direction of the crude oil prices, news flow associated with the developmental
status and ramp up of sales. In the past, the CIL stock has demonstrated strong
correlation with the crude oil prices, which we expect will continue going ahead
too. Thus, in spite of our subdued outlook on oil prices, we believe that the stock
will benefit from the positive development updates from the Rajasthan block. Thus,
given the expected ramp up in production, the earnings-based valuation will
increasingly provide a downward support to our valuations.
We have calculated Cairn India’s NAV by estimating cash flows on asset-by-asset
basis, with associated assumptions for production profile, oil/gas pricing,
royalty/cess, opex and fiscal terms. Our NAV calculation is based on long-term
crude oil price of US $75/bbl, whereas the current stock price is discounting long-
term average crude price of US $79.1/bbl. We ascribe a fair value of Rs315/share
and thus upsides from current levels are limited. We recommend Neutral on the
stock.
August 16, 2010 5
6. Event Update | Oil & Gas
Exhibit 5: SOTP Valuation Summary
Particulars (Rs cr) FY2011E FY2012E
Rajasthan Block
RJ-ON-90/1 (MBA block) 36,437 38,617
Value per share 192 204
RJ-ON-90/1 (MBA EOR) 5,412 6,062
Value per share 29 32
RJ-ON-90/1 (Barmer Hill) 2,525 2,696
Value per share 13 14
RJ-ON-90/1 (Southern fields) 505 539
Value per share 3 3
RJ-ON-90/1 (Other fields) 4,196 4,480
Value per share 22 24
Value of Rajasthan Block 49,075 52,394
Value per share 259 276
CB-OS-2 594 413
Value per share 3 2
Ravva 1,830 1,653
Value per share 10 9
Upside potential (KG-DWN-98/2) 302 331
Value per share 2 2
Exploratory portfolio upsides 6,231 6,828
Value per share 33 36
Total Asset Value 58,032 61,618
Less: Corporate expenditure 2,333 2,243
Value per share 12 12
Less: Net debt (148) (288)
Value per share (1) (2)
Equity value 55,847 59,663
Equity shares (mn) 190 190
Equity value per share 294 315
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 16, 2010 6
7. Event Update | Oil & Gas
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) CY2007 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 1,012 1,433 1,623 7,863 14,761
Less: Excise duty - - - - -
Net Sales 1,012 1,433 1,623 7,863 14,761
Other operating income - - - - -
Total operating income 1,012 1,433 1,623 7,863 14,761
% chg 41.5 13.3 384.5 87.7
Total Expenditure 572 566 643 1,477 2,383
Operating expenditure 195 213 425 1,145 2,052
Administrative & Staff expenditure 388 331 254 331 331
Inc/dec in stock (11) 22 (37) - -
EBITDA 440 866 981 6,386 12,379
% chg 96.7 13.2 551.3 93.8
(% of Net Sales) 43.5 60.5 60.4 81.2 83.9
Total Recouped cost 445 438 357 917 1,522
EBIT (5) 428 623 5,469 10,857
% chg (8893.6) 45.6 777.2 98.5
(% of Net Sales) (0.5) 29.9 38.4 69.6 73.6
Interest & other Charges 2 6 29 238 238
Other Income 132 594 422 208 253
(% of PBT) 105.2 58.5 41.6 3.8 2.3
Share in profit of Associates - - - - -
Recurring PBT 126 1,016 1,016 5,439 10,873
% chg 707.0 0.0 435.1 99.9
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - 28 - - -
PBT (reported) 126 988 1,016 5,439 10,873
Tax 150 184 (35) 1,047 2,121
(% of PBT) 119.5 18.7 (3.4) 19.2 19.5
PAT (reported) (25) 803 1,051 4,392 8,752
Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - -
Prior period items - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) (25) 803 1,051 4,392 8,752
ADJ. PAT (25) 832 1,051 4,392 8,752
% chg 26.4 317.9 99.3
(% of Net Sales) (2.4) 58.1 64.8 55.9 59.3
Basic EPS (Rs) (0.1) 4.2 5.5 23.2 46.1
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) (0.1) 4.2 5.5 23.2 46.1
% chg 30.8 317.9 99.3
August 16, 2010 7
8. Event Update | Oil & Gas
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) CY2007 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 1,873 1,936 1,943 1,943 1,943
Preference Capital - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 27,563 30,867 31,925 35,282 36,866
Shareholders Funds 29,436 32,802 33,868 37,225 38,809
Minority Interest - - - - -
Total Loans 312 4,356 3,401 3,401 3,401
Deferred Tax Liability 492 554 445 470 517
Total Liabilities 30,240 37,713 37,714 41,096 42,727
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 548 1,445 8,080 9,420 11,170
Less: Acc. Depreciation 61 80 120 251 382
Net Block 488 1,365 7,960 9,169 10,788
Capital Work-in-Progress 2,467 5,203 1,829 1,927 1,927
Goodwill 25,319 25,319 25,319 25,319 25,319
Investments 713 171 1,712 500 500
Current Assets 2,088 7,268 2,373 7,210 9,307
Cash and bank balance 1,332 6,527 929 5,225 6,387
Loans & Advances 487 351 832 832 832
Other 270 390 612 1,153 2,088
Current liabilities 835 1,613 1,481 3,029 5,113
Net Current Assets 1,253 5,655 893 4,181 4,193
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - -
Total Assets 30,240 37,713 37,714 41,096 42,727
August 16, 2010 8
9. Event Update | Oil & Gas
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) CY2007 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 126 988 1,016 5,439 10,873
Depreciation 459 463 149 602 1,237
Change in Working Capital (91) 121 (956) 1,008 1,149
Less: Other income (73) (214) (422) (208) (253)
Direct taxes paid (82) (146) (74) (1,022) (2,074)
Others 209 (249) - - -
Cash Flow from Operations 548 963 (287) 5,819 10,930
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (4,450) (3,161) (2,899) (2,918) (2,855)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (2,110) (2,506) 1,541 (1,212) -
Other income 130 152 422 208 253
Cash Flow from Investing (6,430) (5,516) (936) (3,923) (2,602)
Issue of Equity 67 2,532 8 - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (169) 3,767 (956) - -
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) - - - (1,028) (7,167)
Cash Flow from Financing (102) 6,299 (948) (1,028) (7,167)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (5,984) 1,746 (2,171) 869 1,161
Opening Cash balances 6,135 150 1,897 (274) 595
Closing Cash balances 150 1,897 (274) 595 1,756
Closing bank balance 1,181 4,630 1,204 4,630 4,630
Closing cash and bank balance 1,332 6,527 929 5,225 6,387
August 16, 2010 9
11. Event Update | Oil & Gas
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Cairn India
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
August 16, 2010 11
12. Event Update | Oil & Gas
Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Research Team
Fundamental:
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Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
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Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
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Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
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Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com
Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com
Yaresh Kothari Research Associate (Automobile) yareshb.kothari@angeltrade.com
Shrinivas Bhutda Research Associate (Banking) shrinivas.bhutda@angeltrade.com
Sreekanth P.V.S Research Associate (FMCG, Media) sreekanth.s@angeltrade.com
Hemang Thaker Research Associate (Capital Goods) hemang.thaker@angeltrade.com
Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com
Institutional Sales Team:
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Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
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Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
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August 16, 2010 12